My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

UK Housing

UK Commercial Property Update

Build to Rent will continue to thrive

The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international standards. But with plenty of opportunities for investors, we expect that gap will close over the longer term.

16 August 2022

UK Housing Market Outlook

Prices to fall and activity to slump

Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the recession weigh on buyers’ budgets and confidence. While a more robust labour market and lower peak in interest rates than during previous corrections should help limit the damage, we expect house prices to fall by 7% over the next two years. Mortgage approvals and transactions are also set to slump to their lowest levels for over a decade.

12 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)

The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower.

11 August 2022

Our view

If we are right to forecast that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to 3.00% to stamp out inflation then we are on the cusp of the fastest increase in mortgage rates since the late 1980s. That caused house prices to fall by 20%. But the tight labour market, lower loan-to-value ratios, and a lower peak in interest rates means the drop in prices should be less dramatic this time. We expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next two years, reversing a fifth of the increase since the pandemic began.

Latest Research

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

5 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.)

4 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jul.)

2 August 2022

UK Housing Market Chart Book

Deteriorating economic outlook hits sentiment

29 July 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (Jun.)

29 July 2022
See All →