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UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property Update

Build to Rent will continue to thrive

The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international standards. But with plenty of opportunities for investors, we expect that gap will close over the longer term.

16 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead

Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is short lived and any downturn is mild, we expect structural factors to make for a listless global real estate recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our European and US Commercial Property Services.

12 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Valuations worsen further, but may be bottoming out

Commercial property valuations worsened for the sixth quarter in a row in Q2, and for all-property is now the most overvalued since late 2007. But since the end of June gilt yields have edged back and we doubt they will match their previous peak over the next couple of years. With property yields also set to rise we therefore doubt that valuations will continue to deteriorate.

11 August 2022

Our view

The recovery in the UK commercial property market is set to slow this year. With bond yields higher than expected and set to rise even further, we now expect all-property yields to move sideways in 2022 and rise from 2023, which will reduce capital value growth and returns. Structural change will continue to weigh on retail and office performance, while an increase in supply is expected to cool industrial rental growth. Industrial and retail warehouses are expected to lead the way on total returns over the next five years.

Latest Research

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2)

4 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.)

4 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Stretched consumers to cut back on leisure spending

2 August 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Jun.)

29 July 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2)

28 July 2022

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Yield compression at an end as recession looms

22 July 2022
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