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Middle East

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further over the rest of this year and with the pound set to be allowed to depreciate at a faster rate too, we think this will prompt a further 150bp of interest rate hikes, to 12.75%.

8 September 2022

Middle East Economics Update

Egypt: Amer’s resignation raises scrutiny of pound policy

The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer points to a growing tension within policymaking circles on the best way to address the country’s external imbalances. We think the next governor will ultimately need to let the pound fall further – our forecast is for the currency to fall to 25/$ by end-2024 (from 19.1/$ now) – and hike interest rates.

17 August 2022

Middle East Economics Update

The economic impact of the Qatar FIFA World Cup

The 2022 Football World Cup that kicks off in November will provide a significant boost to Qatar’s economy in Q4, but we doubt that the economic legacy of the tournament will live up to officials’ expectations. That raises the risk of overcapacity in key sectors and strains in the banking sector.

15 August 2022

Key Forecasts


Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards

Middle East Economics Weekly

30 November 2022

Our view

If, as we expect, OPEC+ opts to remove oil production quotas beyond September, Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand to benefit most. The combination of rising oil production and looser fiscal policy are both key reasons why we expect the Gulf economies to record strong above-consensus GDP growth this year and next. In contrast, the non-Gulf economies are set for a period of softer growth over 2022-24. At the same time, Egypt’s public finances have been brought back under the spotlight as the weakening of the pound, fiscal slippage, and quick pass-through of rising bond yields, pose a threat to the government debt burden. For now, at least, we think the sovereign should muddle through.

Latest Outlook

Middle East Economic Outlook

Oil fuelling a gulf in growth

The spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence in the region’s outlook. Higher oil output and looser policy will drive above-consensus GDP growth in the Gulf this year and next. Elsewhere, though, external and debt problems will hold back growth.

21 July 2022