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Latin America

Latin America Data Response

Chile GDP (Q2)

Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit widening to more than 8% of GDP in Q2 – which will keep the peso on the backfoot.

18 August 2022

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: regional outperformer in 2022

The robust 1.5% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy’s recovery will be among the strongest in the region this year. Strong growth, alongside upside inflation surprises and the fragile external position mean that the central bank’s tightening cycle has a bit further to run. We expect the policy rate to be raised to 10.50% by October (previously 9.50%), from 9.00% now.  

17 August 2022

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist

The new tax bill unveiled by Colombia’s government, which aims to raise tax revenues to fund the government’s social programmes and “consolidate the fiscal adjustment” doesn’t change our view that the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise over the coming years. Meanwhile, the July inflation figures show that price pressures across the region remain acute, but central bank’s tightening cycles are still likely to come to an end over the next couple of months.

12 August 2022

Key Forecasts


Colombia’s tax reform, inflation problems persist

Latin America Economics Weekly

30 November 2022

Our view

High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin America from global headwinds over the first half of the year, but the second half is set to be much more challenging. Growth is likely to weaken across the region and our forecasts for 2022-24 are generally lower than the consensus. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are likely to come back to the fore. And in the meantime, although inflation should peak in most countries in the coming months, interest rates are likely to be higher for longer than most expect.

Latest Outlook

Latin America Economic Outlook

Commodities boost unwinding

High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are likely to come back to the fore. And in the meantime, although inflation should peak in most countries in the coming months, interest rates are likely to be kept high for longer than most expect.

21 July 2022