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European Data Response

European Data Response

Euro-zone Final HICP (July)

Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas and electricity prices are set to rise steeply in the coming months, keeping the headline rate high.

18 August 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2)

The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and the energy crisis will push the economy into recession before the end of this year. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

17 August 2022

European Data Response

German ZEW Survey (August)

The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy prices on both households and industry takes effect. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

16 August 2022
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European Data Response

German Industrial Production (Jun.)

The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult in the second half of the year due to the energy crisis, rising borrowing costs and falling demand.

European Data Response

EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.)

The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think household spending will struggle over the coming months. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.  

European Data Response

Euro-zone Unemployment (June)

In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession, maintaining the upward pressure on wage growth and inflation. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.  

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022)

The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high inflation, tighter monetary conditions and an energy crisis to push the economy into recession later this year. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.  

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks nailed on and there is a growing chance of an even larger increase.

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