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Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: tightening cycle still has some legs

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bps to 3.75%, and gave a strong indication that more rate hikes are likely over the coming months. That said, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the economic recovery mounting, we don’t think the tightening cycle will run much beyond the second half of this year.

18 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

10 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis

The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed by the West and China. ASEAN countries are most reliant on China both as a source of imported inputs as well as a destination for exports, while major disruptions to semiconductor production in Taiwan would severely restrain Japan’s manufacturing industry despite its smaller trade links with China.

10 August 2022
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to renewed shortages in the automotive and electronics sectors and put further upward pressure on inflation. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Global Economics Service.  

Emerging Asia Economics Update

China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight

The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in the economic pressure it can exert unless it is willing to suffer some economic cost itself. So far it doesn’t seem to be.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end

Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening cycle will come to a finish before the end of the year. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Dovish BI leaves rates on hold, gradual tightening ahead

Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged again today, and the dovish commentary from the press conference means we are pushing back the timing for the first hike from Q3 into Q4. With growth set to slow over the coming quarters and inflation to stay relatively low, the tightening cycle, when it does begin, is likely to be gradual.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka

We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Overview and Global Economics Services.

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