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Emerging Asia

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: tightening cycle still has some legs

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bps to 3.75%, and gave a strong indication that more rate hikes are likely over the coming months. That said, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the economic recovery mounting, we don’t think the tightening cycle will run much beyond the second half of this year.

18 August 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector enjoying a decent rebound, we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints

The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few countries. With growth set to remain weak, and inflation likely to fall back further over the coming months, we are sticking with our view that the region’s tightening cycles will prove short lived.

12 August 2022

Key Forecasts

Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

30 November 2022

Our view

Most central banks in the region are likely to raise interest rates this year. However, with growth set to slow in the face of higher commodity prices and inflation set to peak soon, tightening cycles are unlikely to be aggressive, and our interest rate forecasts are generally more dovish than most.

Latest Outlook

Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow

Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation. However, with economic growth likely to slow over the coming months and inflation set to fall back sharply by the end of the year, tightening cycles are likely to be short lived. We think most central banks will be finished hiking rates by early 2023. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets are expecting tightening cycles to continue well into next year.

20 July 2022