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Australia & New Zealand

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022)

We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp rate hike next month.

18 August 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)

Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

17 August 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jun. 2022)

The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long.

4 August 2022
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Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Labour Market (Q2 2022)

The first rise in New Zealand's unemployment rate since mid-2020 suggests that the RBNZ's hiking cycle is nearing its end. Indeed, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting interest rates next year.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)

Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall sharply over coming months.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jun. 2022)

The sixth consecutive rise in retail sales in June underlines that households are weathering the headwinds from falling house prices, soaring inflation and surging mortgage payments well and we reiterate our long-held view that consumption will rise more sharply this year than most anticipate.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2022)

While inflation picked up in Q2, it wasn’t as strong as we had expected. That suggests that the RBA may opt for another 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting rather than the 75bp we had been anticipating. Australia Drop-In (15:00 SGT, 27th July): Join our 20-minute briefing on why we think Australian inflation is heading higher than the consensus expects, how the RBA will have to raise rates by more than most appreciate to tame it, and what it all means for Aussie asset prices. Register now

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2022)

The stronger-than-expected rise in consumer prices in Q2 adds some upside risks to our forecast that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift rates to 3.5%, but we still think that weaker economic activity will force the Bank to stop tightening before long.

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