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Weighing up the relative prospects for stock market sectors

We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this year.

17 August 2022

Equity and commodity prices may go their own ways

We think equity and commodity prices will generally head in opposite directions over this year and next.

16 August 2022

China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure

We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022.

15 August 2022
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Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3)

Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 10th August 2022. See a more detailed explanation of our views in our Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market

Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think falling commodity prices and mounting fiscal risks will limit the scale of its rally.

Central bank “pivots” and the recent equity market rally

The anticipation of quick reversals of central bank rate hikes has probably supported equity markets of late, but we suspect investors have become overly optimistic and still think equity prices will end this year, in general, below their current levels.

12 August 2022

Rising real yields may end US equity outperformance

US equities have rallied over recent weeks and outperformed stocks elsewhere, a trend which kicked up a gear after the US CPI data yesterday. But we expect equities in general to fall over the rest of 2022 and suspect that stocks in the US may slightly underperform those in the rest of the world as US real yields rise.

11 August 2022

Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has stepped up investments into Egypt this week that will help to ease external financing concerns. At the same time, electricity rationing will begin next week to free up more natural gas (which Egypt relies on for power) for export in an effort to narrow the large current account deficit. However, these measures will only provide a short-term reprieve and a weaker pound and steps to attract more direct investment will be key to putting the external position on a more sustainable footing. Meanwhile, rising inflation is likely to prompt the Central Bank of Egypt to resume its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike, to 11.75%, next Thursday.

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