My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Markets

Bonds

We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar

Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet.

18 August 2022

Pound likely to remain under pressure this year

We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar.

17 August 2022

China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure

We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022.

15 August 2022
More Publications

Inverting to a hurting?

Yield curve inversions have a patchy record of predicting recessions in Canada, but they almost always precede a sharp economic slowdown and the unusually deep nature of the current inversion makes it especially hard to be optimistic this time.

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3)

Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 10th August 2022. See a more detailed explanation of our views in our Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market

Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think falling commodity prices and mounting fiscal risks will limit the scale of its rally.

Rising real yields may end US equity outperformance

US equities have rallied over recent weeks and outperformed stocks elsewhere, a trend which kicked up a gear after the US CPI data yesterday. But we expect equities in general to fall over the rest of 2022 and suspect that stocks in the US may slightly underperform those in the rest of the world as US real yields rise.

11 August 2022

Falling (headline) inflation doesn’t preclude renewed rises in yields

Despite dropping on the signs of a softening in some inflationary pressures, we suspect the yield of 10-year US Treasuries might climb again this year.

10 August 2022
1 to 8 of 2329 publications