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Chile GDP (Q2)

Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit widening to more than 8% of GDP in Q2 – which will keep the peso on the backfoot.

18 August 2022

Japan External Trade (Jul. 2022)

Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record high in July but it should start to shrink over the coming months as supply shortages and commodity prices continue to ease. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

17 August 2022

Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound

Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind to the economy and supports our view that GDP growth will grind to a halt in the coming quarters. Elsewhere, CEE currencies have received some much-needed respite this month as global risk sentiment has improved. We think this will be short lived but it will at least take some pressure off central banks that are dealing with red hot inflation.

12 August 2022
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International Trade (Jun. 2022)

The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long.

Egyptian pound has a lot further to fall

Spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused Egypt’s large current account deficit to widen this year and, with the country struggling to attract stable forms of external financing, officials will need to stick to their shift to a flexible exchange rate in order to restore macroeconomic stability. The result is that we think the pound will need to weaken to around 25/$ (from 18.9/$ now) by the end of 2024. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.

Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan

Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the government’s options to finance a larger-than-expected budget deficit dwindling, officials may be tempted to turn back to deficit monetisation albeit at the risk of exacerbating Nigeria’s other economic problems. Elsewhere, recent Stage 6 loadshedding in South Africa has prompted President Ramaphosa to put forward another plan to deal with the country’s electricity problems. But a swift improvement seems unlikely.
EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.

Money & Credit (Jun.)

The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to their real incomes from high inflation this year, which is why we think the economy will soon slip into a recession. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

EC Survey (Jul.)

The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now reduced and inflation set to remain high for some time, the euro-zone is likely to fall into recession. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

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