My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Europe

Nordic & Swiss

50 is the new 25 for the Norges Bank

Following today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the second consecutive meeting, we now expect the Bank to make it a hat-trick of 50bp hikes at the next meeting in September. With price pressures looking strong, further rate increases are likely to follow.

18 August 2022

Norway faces its own energy crisis

While Norway is not directly in the firing line from the reduction in Russia’s gas exports, it has now got its own problems with low water levels in its hydro reservoirs. This may add a bit to Norway’s electricity inflation and restrict Norway’s electricity exports to continental Europe. That said we don’t think it will stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 50bp at next week’s policy meeting. Drop-In: Europe under siege – The economic impact of Russia’s gas threat Thursday, 18th August 10:00 ET/15:00 BST. Register now.

12 August 2022

Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a further 50bp before its next scheduled meeting, on 20th September, and will lift it to 2.0% by year-end.

12 August 2022
More Publications

Norges Bank has further to go

The Norges Bank said in June that it was likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next week, but we now think it is more likely to go for a 50bp hike. Whatever it decides on interest rates, we expect it to signal strongly that further hikes will be needed in the coming months.

Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The increase in CPI-ATE to a record-high will have raised eyebrows at the Norges Bank. We think another 50 basis point hike at next week’s interim meeting is likely.

What's Danish for the "canary in the coal mine"?

Denmark’s manufacturing PMI fell precipitously from 70.0 to a 27-month low of 38.0 in July. While Denmark's PMI is extremely volatile, this was its largest fall since 2008. And given that Denmark is a very open economy, it is a worrying sign about the health of the global economy. Meanwhile, the PMIs showed that price pressures are easing in Sweden and Switzerland which suggests that inflation will start to fall back over the coming months.

Switzerland CPI (Jul.)

Swiss inflation appears to have peaked in July at an enviably low level compared to that of most other advanced economies. That said, the core rate reached its highest level in more than two decades, which is likely to encourage the SNB to lift rates into positive territory in September, if not sooner. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.  

Nordic footballing woes; Record loss for SNB

The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this week. While consumer spending has held up better than the indicator would have suggested so far, the direction of travel is clear and we think a recession is on the cards in H2. Next week, Swiss consumer price inflation data for July will show that the core rate rose above 2% for the first time since at least 2001.

1 to 8 of 186 publications