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Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia

Philippines: tightening cycle still has some legs

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bps to 3.75%, and gave a strong indication that more rate hikes are likely over the coming months. That said, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the economic recovery mounting, we don’t think the tightening cycle will run much beyond the second half of this year.

18 August 2022

EM inflation nearing its peak

Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in Emerging Europe and Latin America that have already hiked interest rates aggressively and are becoming increasingly concerned about growth, this may provide some space to wind down their tightening cycles. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.  

17 August 2022

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector enjoying a decent rebound, we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022
More Publications

Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints

The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few countries. With growth set to remain weak, and inflation likely to fall back further over the coming months, we are sticking with our view that the region’s tightening cycles will prove short lived.

Malaysia GDP (Q2)

GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades.

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are widening sharply, including Turkey, Chile and parts of Central Europe. Emerging Europe Drop-In (11th Aug): We’re expecting downturns in Central and Eastern Europe, but how bad could it get? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Q3 Outlook report, including the latest on Turkey, Russia and whether Hungary’s forint has further to fall. Register now.

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy.

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