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Drop-In: US July CPI – How far will inflation fall? (10th Aug.)

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Europe Natural Gas (TTF, € Per MWh)

European Economics Focus

How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports?

An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation, which would further squeeze real incomes, and partly through gas rationing, which would particularly affect industry. As an illustrative scenario we think the combined effect would reduce annual GDP by around 2% in the euro-zone next year relative to our current forecast.

9 August 2022

The world with higher interest rates

How will policy tightening shape macro and market outcomes?

New research series explores risks of recession, EM crises and more

Emerging Asia Economics Focus

The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan

China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to...

2 August 2022

Global Central Bank Watch

Will frontloading make hard landings less likely?

The pace of policy tightening has increased still further, with many c...

4 August 2022

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Capital Calls

The big picture

The global recovery will continue to disappoint, with growth well below consensu...

10 May 2022

Developed markets

Equity markets will remain under pressure The combination of hawkish central ba...

23 May 2022

Emerging markets

Financial contagion from the Russia-Ukraine war will remain limited Sanctions a...

10 May 2022

Key Themes